January 2011 Wilmington NC MLS Report
Based on the winter weather we have had it is obvious that our real estate market still has the Winter Blues. Our average sales price has dropped 17% from December 2010; that is quite a fall. Most of the transactions that closed in January we put under contract in December. When you break down the sales that took place in January 2011 there is only 1 transaction that closed above $700,000. While in December 2010 there were 14 sold transactions over $700,000 and January 2010 there were 5 sold transactions over $700,000. This greatly affects our monthly average sales price, our current monthly average sold price is $194,425 for the month of January. This is the first time that the monthly average sold price has dipped under $200,000 in a looooong time.
January’s average sales price has managed to show a decrease of 17% from December. Sold units are down 119 units over last month (about 31%) and even with last January. In the month of January we saw a increase of 71 homes in our listing inventory, we have 4,718 homes on the market as of February 1st. This continues to put us in a strong buyer’s market with a listing inventory of just over a 17.8 month supply. With the low sales in January this affects our month supply with an increase of 5 months from last month with 12.6. Our average list price has started the year under $350,000 range; we are currently at $343,053. In January sellers paid concessions in about 30.6% of all the month’s transactions. Our average days on the market are at 132 days. The list to sold ratio has improved some to 94.4% this number needs to continue to get better. The number of homes that sold in 15 days or less continues to remain very low, 11.3% of January sold homes. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.05% with an average 0.7 points for the week ending February 10, 2011. We have already hit the historic lows in mortgage rates and they are now on the rebound. Call me so I can show you or your clients how they can get the benefit of these rates. Have a great week and let me know what I can do to help you and your clients.
Despite all the media comments about our markets we are still lending money for residential mortgages. If a client has income and credit and some sort of down payment; they can get a mortgage. It goes to the basic three C’s – Capacity, Collateral and Character.
In January we saw a increase in listing inventory of 71 units. We are about 496 units under February 1, 2010 and 687 units under February 1, 2009. We have 4,718 single family homes for sale in our MLS. The average list price of $343,053 is down by $5,950 from last month. Please note the consistent winter dip in listings – see chart below.
Monthly Average Sold Price – this is not a pretty section
Our monthly average sold price is down by 17% from last month and down 9.7% from January 2010. Our average sold price is down by $39,939 from last month. January average sold price ($194,425) shows a decrease of 15.9% from year end 2010.
Monthly Sold Units
We are 2 units shy of matching January 2010 sold homes of 267, while this January we have sold 265 homes. I am sure as January gets closed out we will see the numbers increase over last year’s production. The number of sold homes is up 68 homes from January 2010.
Average Sold Price Year to Date
Year over year our year to date numbers have dipped a little.
2003 year end average sale price $ 186,137
2004 year end average sale price $ 210,048
2005 year end average sale price $ 254,080
2006 year end average sale price $ 264,498
2007 year end average sale price $ 273,408
2008 year end average sale price $256,498
2009 year end average sale price $234,379
2010 year to date average sale price $231,141
While our 2010 year end numbers are lower than year end 2009 they do show promising signs that our sales are on the upswing. Looks like we have a setback with January’s average sold price – $194,425
Rolling 12 months
Our rolling 12 months gives us a better look at our production. It helps to smooth out a month that jumps up and down. When we look at February 1st, 2010 to January 31st, 2011 we have 4,526 sold units and when we compare the year prior February 1st, 2009 to January 31st, 2010 we have a 87 unit gain (4,439 sold units). When we look at the same rolling 12 months for average sold price we see that we are only down by 2.0%. So the dates of 2/1/2010 to 1/31/2011 we have an average sold price of $229,930 while from 2/1/2009 to 1/31/2010 we had an average sold price $233,436.
Median Sold Price
Our Median sold price decreased this month by 12.5% from last month. Our national numbers lag by one month. Our median sales price continues its jagged path – up then down then up and now down. I am hoping that our January dip in median sold price is a onetime event. I am hoping we can see the national median sales price reverse its downward trend as well as WRAR’s.
Pending Sales – A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not yet closed. Sales are typically finalized within one to two months from signing. With the new sales contract I am also counting Active Due Diligence and pending contracts. I look at the total pending units on a regular basis and this is how they chart out. Our pending index is dropping to our winter lows. In December we bottomed out about 575 units, we have since rebounded and have over 663 units that are pending – this is a 15% increase since the end of 2010. With the new contract in place this is a good start to 2011.
Market Absorption rate – The number of homes sold in January, 265 divided by the current listing inventory, 4,718 gives us a 17.8 month supply of single family homes. This increased by 5 months from last month. We need to get this inventory back under 12 months supply. With a large inventory and the low sales in January this affects our market absorption. With rates where they are and plenty of inventory; we can get this number down.
List to Sold price ratio – the average list price of the sold properties is $206,188 and the average sold price is $194,425 for January which gives us a 94.4% list to sold price ratio – a good increase from last month. We have now managed to stay under 95% for over a year and several months. I want to quit counting the number of months and get this trend reversed.
Seller Concessions – We had 30.6% of sold properties report a sales concession for January, a increase of 4.2%. We want this number to go lower.
Days on Market – The average days on market for the sold properties is now at 132 for January. That is about 4.5 months to keep a property on the market. Only 11.3% of the properties were placed under contract in less than 15 days for the month of January.
Carolina & Kure Beach
There are currently 387 single family homes for sale and this represents little change from January 1, 2011 and 8.2% of our total WRAR inventory. The average list price is $390,006 and decrease of about $12,624 from January. In January there were 21 homes sold, divide that by the homes available and you have a 18.4 monthly supply of homes in Carolina and Kure Beach. The average sold price for the month of January was $230,953 and is down $37,893 from last month. When we look at a rolling 12 months for Carolina & Kure Beach we are up by 61 units and our sold prices are down 7.1% from the previous rolling 12 months.
This data was pulled on February 12, 2011, based on information from the Wilmington Regional Association of REALTORS Incorporated, for the period Jan. 1, 2005 through January 31, 2011.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Press Release
30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Rates Rise to 5.05 Percent Highest Level since April 2010
Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® which shows long- and short-term rates rising this week.
30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.05 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending February 10, 2011, up from last week when it averaged 4.81 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.97 percent.
15-year FRM this week averaged 4.29 percent with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.08 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.34 percent.
Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total cost of obtaining the mortgage.
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.
“Long-term bond yields jumped on positive economic data reports, which placed upward pressure on mortgage rates this week.
“For all of 2010, nonfarm productivity rose 3.6 percent, the most since 2002, while January’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 9.4 percent to 9.0 percent. Moreover, the service industry expanded in January at the fastest pace since August 2005.
“As a result, interest rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to the highest level since the last week in April 2010.”
Source: Wilmington MLS and David Flory Cunningham Mortgage
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