Wilmington NC Real Estate
Good news – Our Unit Sales and Average sold price are up, mortgage rates are at an all time low. Lawrence Yun – NAR Chief Economist has noted that the tax credit has broadly stabilized home prices. “Without the tax credit, there will be more aggressive price negotiations between buyers and sellers. The key test on whether the housing market can stand on its own without stimulus medicine will depend critically on private sector job creation in the second half of the year. We’ll also keep a close eye on market conditions on the Gulf Coast. If jobs come back as expected, the pace of homes sales should pick up later this year and reach a sustainable level of activity given very favorable affordability conditions,” Yun said. We have a lot of opportunities for growth in our area.
We have 10 months of growth in sold units over the same time frame from a year ago. June had an increase in sold units over May and an increase in the average sold price of 8.2%. The median price saw an increase of .8% over last month. Our pending index is down about 18.7% from last month. It appears that about May 3rd our pending index peaked (see chart), this coincides with April 30th deadline for first time homebuyers to be under contract. The other adjustment is the fact that Realtors have to report transactions to the MLS within 3 days.
In the month of June we saw an increase of 65 homes in our listing inventory, we have 5,729 homes on the market as of July 1st. This continues to put us in a strong buyer’s market with a listing inventory of over an 11.3 month supply. Our average list price has stayed below the $400,000 range for ten months; we are currently at $380,567. Our rolling 12 months (year over year) shows a gain of 694 units or 16.9% gain. In June we saw an increase in our seller concessions, it is now 30.8%. Our average days on the market are 119. The list to sold ratio is 94.4% and is down .1% from last month; this number needs to continue to get better. The number of homes that sold in 15 days or less continues to remain very low, 20.4% of June sold homes. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.57% with an average 0.7 points for the week ending July 8, 2010. Have a great week and let me know what I can do to help you and your clients.
Despite all the media comments about our markets we are still lending money for residential mortgages. If a client has income and credit and some sort of down payment; they can get a mortgage. It goes to the basic three C’s – Capacity, Collateral and Character.
Wilmington NC Homes for Sale
In June we saw an increase in homes for sale of 65 units. We are about 294 units over July 1, 2009. We have 5,729 single family homes for sale in our MLS. The average list price of $380,567 is down by $6,057 from last month. The average list price has decreased by 8.8% from July 1, 2009.
Monthly Average Sold Price
Our monthly average sold price is up by 8.2% from last month and down 4.8% from June 2009. Our average sold price is up by $18,197 from last month. June average sold price ($238,986) shows an increase of 2.0% from year end 2009. Our average sold price had its first considerable increase since February. We can tie this to our peak pending index on May 3rd and the original tax credit deadline of June 30th (this has been extended to September 30, 2010 by Congress).
Monthly Sold Units
The number of sold homes is up 15.5% from last month and up 21.6% from June 2009 and we are up 12.9% from June 2008. June saw an increase of 90 sold homes over June 2009. This is our tenth monthly increase in year over year sold homes since September 2005. No doubt in my mind the First Time Homebuyers Tax Credit has contributed to this increase in sales units. I am concerned that with the tax credit removed as an incentive we will see a decrease in our sales as we approach the fall.
Average Sold Price Year to Date
Year over year our year to date numbers have dipped a little.
2003 year end average sale price $ 186,137
2004 year end average sale price $ 210,048
2005 year end average sale price $ 254,080
2006 year end average sale price $ 264,498
2007 year end average sale price $ 273,408
2008 year end average sale price $256,498
2009 year end average sale price $234,379
2010 year to date average sale price $226,880
While our current year to date numbers are lower than Year End 2009 they do show promising signs that our sales are on the upswing. The first six months of 2010 has a 443 sold unit gain over first six months of 2009. The average sales price is down 3.7% for the first six months of 2010 than the first six months of 2009. Our median sales price is just 2.2% behind 2009.
Rolling 12 months
Another bright spot is the rolling 12 month numbers. When we look at July 1st, 2009 to June 30th, 2010 we have 4,810 sold units and when we compare July 1st, 2008 to June 30th, 2009 we have a 694 unit gain (4,116 sold units). When we look at the same rolling 12 months for average sold price we see that we are only down by 5.5%. So the dates of 7/1/2009 to 6/30/2010 we have an average sold price of $230,213 while from 7/1/2008 to 6/30/2009 we had an average sold price $243,596.
Median Sold Price
Our Median sold price is up .8% from last month, about $188,500. While we have not dipped as low as the National Median we seem to have turned the corner while the national median is showing a slight increase. I would anticipate over the next couple of months to continue to see this median increase.
Pending Sales – A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not yet closed. Sales are typically finalized within one to two months from signing. I look at the total pending units on a regular basis and this is how they chart out. We saw our pending index turn back to its upward climb about the first week in January. We saw our peak pending numbers about May 3rd. We are down 21% from last month and we are down 31% from our peak on 5/3/10. With the tax credit benefits expired it will be interesting to see if our sales can improve going into late summer and early fall.
Market Absorption rate – The number of homes sold in June, 506 divided by the current listing inventory, 5,729 gives us an 11.3 month supply of single family homes. This decreased by 1.7 months from last month. This is good to be under 12 months. With rates where they are and plenty of inventory; we can get this number down.
List to Sold price ratio – the average list price of the sold properties is $253,292 and the average sold price is $238,986 for June which gives us a 94.4% list to sold price ratio – a decrease of .1% from last month. We have now managed to stay under 95% for over a year.
Seller Concessions – We had 30.8% of sold properties report a sales concession for June, an increase of 2.4%. We want this number to go lower.
Days on Market – The average days on market for the sold properties is now at 119 for June. That is almost 5 + months to keep a property on the market. Only 20.4% of the properties were placed under contract in less than 15 days for the month of June.
Carolina & Kure Beach
There are currently 516 single family homes for sale and this represents an 18 unit decrease over June 1, 2010 and 9.0% of our total WRAR inventory. The average list price is $418,525 an increase of about $3,047 from May. In June there were 27 homes sold, divide that by the homes available and you have a 19.1 monthly supply of homes in Carolina and Kure Beach. The average sold price for the month of June was $366,246 and is up $85,443 from last month. When we look at our rolling 12 months July 1, 2009 to June 30, 2010 we have 295 homes sold at an average price of $293,076. While July 1, 2008 to June 30, 2009 we had 248 homes sold at an average price of $323,910.
This data was pulled on July 10, 2010, based on information from the Wilmington Regional Association of REALTORS Incorporated, for the period Jan. 1, 2005 through June 30, 2010.
30 year fixed rate mortgage drop slightly to create another new low
Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.57 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending July 8, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 4.58 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.20 percent. This rate is yet another all-time low in Freddie Mac’s 39-year survey.
“With mortgage rates falling to historic lows, refinance activity has been strong over the past three months,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. “The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the effective mortgage rate of all loans outstanding was just below six percent in the first quarter of 2010, the lowest since the series began in 1977. Since the start of the second quarter, two out of three mortgage applications on average were for refinancing, according the Mortgage Bankers Association.
“Household balance sheets also improved in other ways over the first three months of the year. The Federal Reserve (Fed) reported household net worth rose by almost $1.1 trillion in the first quarter of 2010. The share of credit card loans that were 30-days or more past due fell to the lowest since first quarter of 2002, according to the American Bankers Association. Finally, the aggregate household debt burdens were at a level not seen since the third quarter of 2000, based on the Fed’s debt service ratio.”
Thanks to David Flory of Cunningham Mortgage .
Cunningham & Company is a full service Mortgage Banker – we handle everything in house. We do first time buyers, USDA, FHA and VA loans, Conventional and Jumbo Loans, 100% financing and we have a large selection of adjustable rate loans as well as several interest only programs. You may reach David at 910 352-8273