The Economy and Bailouts

The last couple of months have had our world spinning and we have learned that while one industry hurts it affects other industries. Everyone wants a bailout these days, while it may take a while for all these different plans to work, it seems to be moving the markets in the right direction. With the Fed announcing just before Thanksgiving that it would purchase up to $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities, we saw mortgage rates drop from 6.06% to 5.5%.

Wilmington NC Market Conditions

We continue to be down in the number of homes sold in Wilmington, NC  but our rolling 12 month average sales price which is now just behind 2007 by $19,402, this represents a minus 7.1%. In units we are showing a 39.8% decline. Most agents will agree that it is a buyer’s market when the listing inventory exceeds 6 months; we are there at 20+ month supply of homes. We have a few plus factors – Our listing inventory is down as expected this time of year, and the average list price has remained stable. Our average list price is down just $48.00 from December 16th, 2007. Our average days on the market are 117 days which is typical for a buyer’s market it went up by 1 days over last month.  The list to sold ratio is 93.4% we want this number to be going up, and it went down from last month. Our sold units are down by 39.8% from last month. One area I continue to look at is the Pending Inventory, and based on the current numbers we will see decreases as we approach the winter.  Our pending inventory numbers have gone from the high 900’s the first week of July into the mid 840’s the first part of August and into the mid 760’s the first week of September and into the high 690’s the first week of October and we are now approaching the low 600’s here in mid November. Through November and into early December the pending inventory touched 597 and is now back into the low 600’s. I would like to tell you that we are reaching bottom, some interesting facts; Average list price has ranged from $411,964 (current) to $420,000’s for the last 7 months, and the rolling 12 month average sales price is only down 7.1%.

It seems like we have been on a never ending roller coaster since September. Billions of dollars have been adjusted all over the place, bailouts and economic stimulus plans seem to be the word of the day. Despite all the media comments about our markets we are still lending money for residential mortgages. We do seem to be going back to the basics; income and credit and some sort of down payment and you can get a mortgage. I firmly believe that this quarter and the first quarter of 2009 will prove to be the ideal time to purchase real estate.

Wilmington NC Homes for Sale

Our current listing inventory of homes for sale in Wilmington, NC has a 158 unit decrease from last month and we are about 198 units down from November 2007. We have 5,494 single family homes for sale in Wilmington, NC MLS. The average list price of $411,964 is down by $48.00 from December 16th 2007. Our average list price last November was $412,012. If our charts prove correct we will continue to see a small decrease in listing through December 2008.

Monthly Average Sold Price Wilmington NC Real Estate

Our monthly average sold price for Wilmington, NC real estate is down 1.6% from last month and down 8.1% from November 2007.  November average sold price ($252,331) shows a decline of just 7.8% from year end 2007. When we look at a rolling 12 months our current average sales price remains behind year over year comparisons. Our current year over year (12/01/07 – 11/30/08) average sold price of $254,090 is 7.1% behind $273,492 of this time last year.

Homes Sold in Wilmington NC

The number of sold homes in Wilmington, NC for the month of  November is down a whopping 39.8% from last month. When we look at a rolling 12 months our number of sold unit’s year over year is 4,758 units compared to 6,623 last year this time, a decrease of 28.2%. Our monthly sold units continue to lag behind the last couple of years.

Average Sold Price Year to Date

Year over year our year to date numbers have dipped a little.

2003 year end average sale price $ 186,137

2004 year end average sale price $ 210,048

2005 year end average sale price $ 254,080

2006 year end average sale price $ 264,520

2007 year end average sale price $ 273,701

2008 year to date average sale price $257,280

Our 12 month (12/1/07 – 11/30/08) rolling average ($254,090) continues to show us that we are behind last year ($273,492) by less than 7.1% and only off by 3.7% from 12/01/05 – 11/30/06. This is good news. Please note our average Sold Price year to date has consistently stayed in the price range of $250,000 to $257,280 since March 2008.

Median Sold Price

Our Median sold price is $ 194,000 for November 08’. This is a 3.0% decrease over last month. The National Median sold price is showing a downward trend. It will be interesting to see how the National numbers look over the next couple of months. We are still just slightly ahead of the National Median price.

Market Absorption rate – The number of homes sold in November, 213 divided by the current listing inventory, 5,494 gives us a 25.7 month supply of single family homes. Due to the low sales volume in November that greatly affects this calculation. We are back over the 12 month supply. We would need monthly sales of over 950 units to get us back under a 6 month supply, so we still have a long road ahead.

List to Sold price ratio – the average list price of the sold properties is $269,954 and the average sold price is $252,331 for November which gives us a 93.47% list to sold price ratio.  We are now back under the 95% list to sold price ratio.

Carolina & Kure Beach Real Estate

There are currently 592 single family homes for sale in Carolina Beach and Kure Beach and this represents a 21 unit decrease over November and 10.8% of our total WRAR inventory.  The average list price is $526,051 a decrease of .03% over November 08’. In November there were 10 homes sold, divide that by the homes available and you have a very large monthly supply of homes in Carolina and Kure Beach. This is up from last month. The average sold price for the month of November was $278,152 a decrease over last month of 15.9%. Our year to date sales numbers of 224 units are down only 15 units from last year same time frame.

This data was pulled on December 14, 2008. Based on information from the Wilmington Regional Association of REALTORS Incorporated, for the period Jan. 1, 2005 through November 30, 2008.

Many Thanks to David Flory with Cunningham and Company Mortgage Brokers for this data.